Bring on the Year of the Earth Rat

Things are settling down a bit here in Dharamsala after 6 days of partying for Losar, the Tibetan New Year. While it was nice to see friends and pray for a good year for all and enjoy the time to relax and drink and eat way too much, I also found a darker undertone to this year’s celebrations. One activist friend has vowed not to celebrate anything until Tibet is free again and after sharing a traditional meal of thukpa on the eve of Losar, remained holed away in his home while the rest of us celebrated. A friend in Delhi began a hunger strike in Jantar Mantar on the first day of Losar. And most shockingly, a Tibetan boy yelled “Bhod Gyalo” (Free Tibet) before jumping off the roof of his hostel while people were gathered for a Losar picnic below. On a quiet sunny morning, I also started reading Woeser’s part of the book “Unlocking Tibet” and was shaken by her descriptions of the decline of the Potala Palace and of the fragmentation of the Tibetan people. All of these incidents reminded me of the strange paradox of celebrating while we have so much to work for. When I went to temple, I prayed that next year we would all be able to celebrate in Lhasa, with Tibetan flags flying high.

With the new year and its accompanying sense of new beginning, there have been many articles forecasting what the year of the Earth Rat will mean for China. The year of the rat is associated with great wealth, but also death. The rat is characterized as being cunning, aggressive, a leader, hard-working and strong-willed.

According to a popular myth, the rat is the first animal in the 12-year cycle because it sneakily rode on the back of the ox (the second year) and jumped off near the finishing line.

With its propaganda machine working full tilt, challenging anyone’s criticisms of their human rights violations as going against the so-called “Olympic spirit” and succeeding in getting national Olympic associations to place bans on their athletes speaking out about politically sensitive issues, it certainly seems that China is trying very hard to be the deceitful rat. However,

This year's Rat is represented by earth sitting on top of water. The earth represents stability, but since it is sitting on water that stability is weak and the two elements are in conflict. So watch out: the foundation of this next year is shaky, creating a degree of unpredictability.

The World Bank recently cut China’s growth forecast, inflation is the highest it’s been in 10 years, share prices are 25% lower than they were at their peak last year, and export growth in being challenged by China’s appreciating currency.

I received an interesting e-mail, passed on from a friend in Tibet, with a forecast for the upcoming year:

Most of you have probably heard of “mo” or the Tibetan tradition of fortune-telling… Apparently there's a sacred book in Tibet in which all of the most esteemed “mopa” or fortune tellers (mostly lamas) write down their predictions for the future before passing away. The current keeper of the book revealed that this year, 2135 on the Tibetan calendar, was almost universally predicted in the book to be a year when the Dalai Lama would be seen again in Tibet and when culture and religion would flourish…major tasks or challenges taken on this year will go smoothly and be successful.

Regardless of which forecasts you believe (or if you believe any at all), this year is sure to be a very interesting one for Tibet and China.

Beijing: We Are Ready!